Sunshine Coast infill development: what the next five years look like

The Sunshine Coast is one of the fastest-growing regions in Australia. The numbers are not ambiguous. The council's own planning documents anticipate 84,800 additional dwellings by 2046, with approximately 60% required to be delivered through infill development on existing urban land. That is roughly 50,000 new dwellings on sites that are currently occupied by detached houses, light industrial uses, or underutilised commercial properties.

This is not a projection that might happen. The population growth is already here. The infrastructure is being built. The planning scheme has been written to accommodate it. The only variable is who captures the value.

Where the opportunity is concentrated

Not all infill sites are equal. The best opportunities sit at the intersection of three factors: favourable zoning, limited site constraints, and strong end-market demand.

On the Sunshine Coast, that intersection currently points to a handful of corridors. The coastal strip from Caloundra to Maroochydore, where medium density residential zoning permits townhouses and low-rise apartments. The Maroochydore city centre, where the local plan anticipates significant density increases. And the suburban ring around Buderim, Sippy Downs, and Palmview, where larger lots in established suburbs are becoming economically viable for subdivision or multi-dwelling development.

Each of these corridors has different planning controls, different market dynamics, and different risk profiles. A site in Mooloolaba has a very different buyer profile and achievable sale price compared to a site in Currimundi, even though they might be three kilometres apart.

The land price question

The fundamental tension in infill development is the relationship between land cost and development yield. As more developers recognise the opportunity, land prices in well-zoned locations have increased significantly. Median house prices on the Sunshine Coast have grown 76% over the past five years. Sites with development potential have grown even faster, because the premium buyers are willing to pay reflects the anticipated development value, not just the existing use value.

This creates a paradox: the longer you wait, the more you know about market conditions, but the more you pay for land. The developers who have done best over the past cycle are the ones who committed early, when land prices were lower relative to end-product values.

The next five years are likely to follow a similar pattern. The sites that are available today at current prices will not be available at those prices in 2028. Construction costs will continue to increase (they always do), but end-product values on the Sunshine Coast are underpinned by genuine demand from population growth, not speculative capital flows.

What the data tells us about timing

Our system tracks council DA lodgements, approval timelines, construction cost indices, and comparable sales data across the Sunshine Coast. Several patterns are becoming clear.

DA processing times have been increasing. The average time from lodgement to decision for a multi-dwelling project has grown from around four months to closer to seven months over the past two years. This affects project timelines, holding costs, and ultimately the financial viability of marginal projects.

Construction costs have stabilised after the sharp increases of 2022 and 2023, but they have not come down. The new baseline is materially higher than pre-COVID levels, and there is no structural reason to expect a significant reduction.

End-product demand remains strong, particularly for well-located townhouses and low-rise apartments in the $700,000 to $1.1 million range. This is the product type that most infill sites on the Sunshine Coast are best suited to deliver.

The window is real, and it is narrowing

If you own land on the Sunshine Coast that is zoned for medium or high density development, or if you are looking to acquire a site, the next 12 to 24 months represent a meaningful window. Land is available. Zoning permits the development. The market wants the product. Construction costs have stabilised.

What you need is clarity on whether a specific site works financially, given its planning controls, site constraints, and the realistic cost of delivering the product the market wants. That is exactly what a feasibility assessment provides. Start by checking your site's zoning and overlays with our free Site Analyser.